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Chelsea vs Sunderland
A rotated Chelsea lineup thrashed Ajax 5-1 in midweek, and they can extend their winning streak when they host Sunderland on Saturday.
After a difficult September, the Blues have racked up four straight wins in all competitions, lifting them to fifth in the Premier League table. They have kept a clean sheet in two of these victories, and they may produce another shutout on Saturday.
Sunderland’s excellent start to their first season back in the top flight continued with a 2-0 triumph over Wolves last weekend to leave them seventh in the standings, but ten of their 14 points have been won at the Stadium of Light, and they may have a more difficult time in the capital.
The Black Cats have scored just one goal in four away games this season, losing 2-0 at both Old Trafford and Turf Moor, and Enzo Maresca’s side have kept three clean sheets in six home fixtures.
- Sunderland have scored just one goal away from home this season.
- Chelsea have won their last four fixtures.
Prediction: Chelsea Wins
Newcastle vs Fulham
Newcastle are the clear favourites ahead of the visit of out-of-form Fulham in the Premier League on Saturday.
The Magpies come into the game after a convincing 3-0 win over Jose Mourinho’s Benfica in the Champions League in midweek, and they take on a Fulham side who have lost their last three league assignments.
A home win looks the most likely result, but the best betting angle could be the general 10/11 on offer for over 2.5 goals.
Fulham dominated the meetings between these sides last season, winning both league games. Both teams scored in both meetings and we may see goals at both ends at St James’ Park, as Newcastle have conceded in four of their seven home games across all competitions and Fulham have scored in five of their last six overall.
Newcastle’s league games are averaging a modest 1.75 goals per-game but in home games alone that figure stands at 2.75. Across all competitions, over 2.5 goals has been a winning bet in five of their seven home games and with Fulham’s defence looking suspect there is a decent chance we could see a high-scoring game in the north east.
As mentioned earlier, a home win does seem the more likely outcome and the fact Newcastle played in midweek isn’t really a concern. Eddie Howe’s men have taken four points from two games immediately after a Champions League fixture and Fulham come into the game out of form.
Two of Fulham’s last three losses have been 3-1 losses so a home win by that scoreline has a chance here. Newcastle have scored multiple goals in three of their last four outings at St James’ Park and all three of the Cottagers’ road losses have come via two-goal margins and they have scored exactly one goal in four of their last five Premier League fixtures.
- Over 2.5 goals has been a winning bet in five of Newcastle’s last six games.
- There have been at least three goals scored in four of Fulham’s last four league games.
- The Cottagers are on a three-game losing run.
Prediction: Corner: O 7.5
Brentford vs Liverpool
Liverpool ended a four-game losing run in emphatic fashion on Wednesday as they claimed a 5-1 Champions League win at Eintracht Frankfurt and now have a chance to get back on track in the league at Brentford in the evening kick off on Saturday.
The manner of the victory in Germany will also please under pressure Reds boss Arne Slot as his side responded to conceding an early goal to fight back, but Brentford should put up a fight as they have only lost once at their Gtech Community Stadium home this season.
Brentford have picked up a win over Manchester United and held Chelsea to a draw at home this season but Liverpool are a side they have struggled against in recent seasons.
The Merseyside outfit have won each of the last five games between these two sides and should come into the game in confident mood after their midweek romp.
Brentford didn’t offer a great deal in a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City in their last home game after conceding an early goal, and it could be a similar story against the defending champions on Saturday so a Liverpool win is a confident pick here.
Liverpool won both games against Brentford 2-0 last season but we could be in line for goals at both ends in West London on Saturday.
Slot’s side have struggled for clean sheets as they have managed just two in 13 games across all competitions this season, while Brentford have a reasonable attacking record with 11 goals scored in eight Premier League games.
- Liverpool ended a four-match losing run at Frankfurt on Wednesday.
- The Reds have won each of the last five meetings between these sides.
- Brentford have lost four of their eight league games.
Prediction: O 0.5 HT
Napoli vs Inter Milan
Napoli boss Antonio Conte put their 6-2 drubbing at PSV in midweek down to a lack of chemistry in the squad. After their close-knit unit won Serie A last term, Conte says his side have to work to incorporate their nine summer signings, having hit a rough stretch of form.
Napoli have won lost two of their previous three league games, alongside that hammering in Eindhoven. Their struggles are set to continue on Saturday, as Cristian Chivu has Inter Milan up and running.
Inter have won seven straight games across all competitions, following their 1-0 win at Roma and a 4-0 win at Union Saint Gilloise in the Champions League. Chivu has the Nerazzurri looking good going forward, netting 18 times in that stretch.
The Italian champions have already fallen short against leaders AC Milan, while they’ve lost two of their first three Champions League games.
- Inter Milan have won each of their last seven games
- Napoli have suffered three defeats in five games, including two losses in three Serie A outings
- The Nerazzurri are top of the Serie A xG table
Prediction: Corner Away: O 5.5
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Bayern Munich
Vincent Kompany was rewarded with a new contract following Bayern Munich’s 2-1 Klassiker win on Saturday and he celebrated the occasion by landing a 12th successive win on Tuesday, leading his side to a 4-0 rout of Club Brugge.
High-scoring wins have been the story of the Bavarians’ season, with the champions netting 27 goals while prevailing in all seven of their Bundesliga games, and the trend is likely to continue when they take on Borussia Monchengladbach in a bottom-vs-top clash on Saturday.
The Bundesliga basement boys have carried over their form from the end of last term and are still searching for a first three points of the campaign. Their winless run in the league now stands at 14 games and it is hard to envisage that being snapped when the champions come to town.
Harry Kane is grabbing most of the headlines thanks to his Bundesliga return of 12 goals in seven games but he is not the only in-form Bavarian for Monchengladbach to worry about, with Luis Diaz, Michael Olise and Serge Gnabry also in scintillating form.
Just two of Bayern’s last 11 matches have featured fewer than four goals and with so many of their attackers in red-hot form, they are expected to put a bruised Borussia Monchengladbach to the sword this weekend.
- Bayern Munich are scoring an average of 3.85 goals per game in the Bundesliga this season
- The Bavarians have won all 12 of their matches in all competitions, scoring 44 goals
- Borussia Monchengladbach are without a win in 14 Bundesliga games
Prediction: Bayern O 2.5
Brest vs PSG
Paris Saint-Germain have got the better of Brest in recent meetings and can continue to dominate this fixture when they visit Stade Francis Le Ble on Saturday. The hosts have lost 14 of the last 15 league games against PSG.
Brest were beaten 5-2 by Paris Saint-Germain in their last Ligue 1 meeting in February, with PSG priced at 4/9 to win the game. Paris Saint-Germain have led at half-time in ten of their last 12 Ligue 1 meetings with Brest and the PSG-PSG double result is the way to go again.
Paris Saint-Germain are ten places above Brest in the table, with eight points separating the two teams. The hosts are 12th having won two and lost three of their eight games, while PSG have five wins and one defeat.
The visitors have been in goalscoring form recently, with Paris Saint-Germain finding the net at least twice in four of their last six Ligue 1 games.
Paris Saint-Germain have lost just one of their last ten Ligue 1 games, a run that has yielded six wins and three draws.
Prediction: PSG Wins
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
On paper, this clash pits together two of the Premier League’s strongest performers so far. It’s little surprise that league leaders Arsenal also lead the way in terms of underlying numbers, conceding the fewest Expected Goals. However, only the Gunners have outperformed Crystal Palace in Expected points, while the Eagles have the highest xG tally in the league.
The problem for the visitors is that this test doesn’t exactly come at the ideal time. Palace are winless in three, losing twice. Thursday’s shock 1-0 defeat to Larnaca in the Conference League was a setback, while the visitors are also the Premier League’s biggest underperformers when it comes to scoring, netting 12 goals against an xG of 17.4. That’s not the best statistic ahead of a visit to the league’s strongest defence.
Arsenal continued their winning streak with a 4-0 victory over Atletico Madrid in midweek, while they’ve been installed as odds-on favourites for the league title. After early-season chatter about their defensive style holding them back, they’re now being backed to finish the season as the best backline in league history.
Chelsea set the record for fewest goals conceded in 2004/05, letting in only 15 goals across the campaign. The Gunners have shipped just three in eight league outings, while they’ve not even faced a shot on target in each of their last two Premier League games.
The Gunners have held their opponents under 1.0 xG in nine consecutive games across the league and Champions League, so chances will be hard to come by for the visitors.
Palace played out a thrilling 3-3 draw last week, but expect a change in approach for Sunday’s visit to the Emirates. The Eagles were much more reserved in their league opener at Chelsea, drawing 0-0 in a clash which was low on clear-cut chances.
- Eight of Arsenal’s 12 games this term have featured under 2.5 goals
- The hosts have kept four successive clean sheets
- Palace are underperforming their xG tally by the biggest margin in the division
Prediction: Corner: O 8.5
Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Manchester City’s defeats against Tottenham and Brighton in August were in line with their struggles in the middle of last term. Pep Guardiola’s side fell off the pace early, but an understated four wins from five in the league has made them Arsenal’s biggest challengers.
Man City are into second, with their more reserved style of play bringing some stability to the Citizens. Guardiola’s side also secured a routine win over Villarreal in the Champions League this week, taking them onto seven points from their first three games in Europe.
City have won seven of nine games since the start of September, drawing twice. They haven’t been blowing opponents away, but they’re certainly restoring their fear factor.
City’s back-to-basics approach has led to them leaning on Erling Haaland more than ever, but the forward is in the form of his life. He hasn’t failed to score for club or country in 12 consecutive games, while he’s netted 24 goals in 14 appearances in 25/26.
In the Premier League alone, Haaland has scored 11 times in eight matches, which is 65% of their total this term. He’s been even more important on the road, scoring five of their seven away league goals.
Despite his incredible form, Haaland is close to evens to continue his scoring run. While he’s only found the net in one of three visits to Villa Park, he’s tough to oppose given his excellent form.
Aston Villa fell to a surprise 2-1 defeat against Dutch side Go Ahead Eagles on Thursday, while their recent five-game winning run came in spite of some concerning xG numbers.
- City have won seven of their last nine matches in all competitions
- Villa’s 2-1 loss to Go Ahead Eagles was only the third time this term in which they’ve won the xG battle
- Haaland has scored in 12 consecutive games for club and country
- The forward has scored 65% of City’s league goals, including five of their seven away strikes
Prediction: O 0.5 HT
Everton vs Tottenham Hotspur
Everton’s move from Goodison Park to the Hill Dickinson Stadium was met with anticipation by the club’s fanbase, but David Moyes’ men have adjusted to their new surroundings brilliantly.
The Toffees have beaten Brighton and Crystal Palace on Merseyside and held West Ham and Aston Villa to draws.
Those wins over Brighton and Palace are noteworthy due to the two clubs’ expectations this season as they target European football in the coming months.
Everton will settle for a draw this weekend against a Spurs team that are yet to lose this season on the road under Thomas Frank.
Spurs come into the game on the back of a clash with Monaco in the Champions League away from home, and with fatigue an issue, they too will not be too disappointed to share the points.
Recent games between these two English giants have been entertaining affairs and both teams have scored in four of the last five meetings.
Everton won this corresponding tie 3-2 against Spurs last season in January, and the Toffees should be able to build on their recent form.
Moyes’ side have yet to disappoint their fans and they have scored in every home game so far, but it is unlikely that they score two or more against this resolute Spurs backline.
Frank’s men have only conceded three goals away from home in the Premier League and they recorded clean sheets against Manchester City and West Ham.
Spurs struggled to break Monaco down in midweek and with Moyes’ team set to defend from the first whistle, they too will do well to score more than once.
- Everton have yet to lose at home this season in all competitions
- No team has a better away record than Tottenham
- Iliman Ndiaye has scored three goals this season with six of his 11 shots hitting the target
Prediction: 1-3 Goals Away
Lazio vs Juventus
Juventus have taken plenty of criticism over the last week, thanks to consecutive losses to nil. The Old Lady lost 2-0 at Como and 1-0 at Real Madrid, extending their winless run to seven matches.
However, I’m higher on the visitors compared the hosts Lazio, who have won only twice in Serie A this term. Their summer transfer ban held back the returning Maurizio Sarri, while the mood of the club has seemed poor throughout the campaign.
The Biancolcesesti have drawn with Atalanta and Torino in their previous two games, but they were fortunate to avoid defeat in both. Against Atalanta they generated 0.25 xG and conceded 2.18. Torino had twice as many shots and big chances in a 3-3 draw in Rome, with a last-minute penalty sparing Lazio’s blushes.
- Lazio have lost to nil in three of their four clashes with sides above them in the table
- The hosts have drawn their last two games, but they’ve lost the xG battle by a combined 3.94 to 1.6
- Juve’s loss at Como last weekend is their only league defeat of the campaign so far
Prediction: Corner: Away 0 4.5
Real Madrid vs Barcelona
Germany’s top two got the chance to showcase their talents in last week’s Klassiker and Sunday will give the biggest teams in Spain – and possibly the world – an opportunity to light up Europe as Real Madrid welcome Barcelona to the Bernabeu for the season’s first El Clasico.
With Madrid leading the way in La Liga but Barca only two points behind their rivals, Sunday’s showdown promises to be a thriller and it may just be one the visitors can edge.
Real are favourites at a shade of odds-against and there are a couple of reasons why. They have won all five of their home matches under Xabi Alonso, so a Bernabeu bonus is active, while their rivals are in the midst of an injury crisis.
Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski, Joan Garcia and Dani Olmo are Barca’s most significant absentees, although the bookies seem to be underestimating the immense depth at Hansi Flick’s disposal.
They coped just fine without those players when routing Olympiakos 6-1 in the week racking up 27 shots against Girona on Saturday and while Real Madrid will pose a much sterner test than La Liga’s basement boys, Barca can bank on a stunning head-to-head record.
Fick’s side scored eight goals while winning both league Clasicos last term and also routed Real 5-2 in the Spanish Super Cup final. They also landed 3-2 victory in extra-time of the Copa Del Rey final and that should give them an added boost ahead of Sunday’s capital excursion.
Madrid may be top of La Liga but their recent results suggest Barca are far too big a price. They only secured three points against Getafe after their hosts were reduced to ten men last Sunday, suggesting they are still working things out under Alonso, and the big worry will be their woeful performance against Atletico.
- Barcelona scored eight goals while winning last season’s two La Liga El Clasicos
- Barca have won seven of their last nine games
- Xabi Alonso has won 15 and lost just two of his 18 games as Real Madrid manager
Prediction: BTS/ O 2.5
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