Fear has gripped the Premier League as clubs face another season under the restrictive Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR).
Despite unanimous approval for a spending cap, it won’t kick in until 2025/26, forcing teams to tread carefully in the transfer market. The painful memory of Everton and Nottingham Forest’s points deductions still lingers, leaving clubs anxious about avoiding similar punishment.
This caution was evident in the unusually quiet January transfer window, which saw a huge £96.2 million spent – the lowest in three years.
As the 2024 summer transfer window approaches, we’re shining a light on the eight clubs most at risk of breaching PSR and identifying which players might need to be sold to avoid further points deductions.
With academy products offering a safe source of profit, we may see more young talent being sold to mitigate the risk of regulatory action.
While PSR remains deeply unpopular, clubs will have to wait until 2025/26 for the new financial regulations to bring some much-needed relief.
Chelsea – Severe PSR Risk
- Transfer Net Spend Since 2021/22: £722.4m
Since Todd Boehly purchased Chelsea in 2022, the club has become the Premier League’s biggest spender, shelling out over £1 billion on new players.
This lavish spending has drawn criticism, particularly for exploiting the Profitability and Sustainability Regulations (PSR) loopholes. Chelsea has been using amortization to spread player costs over lengthy contracts.
This led to a recent rule change where Premier League clubs voted to limit spreading transfer fees to a maximum of five years.
Chelsea has made three signings exceeding £100 million since the 2021/22 season, bringing in Romelu Lukaku, Enzo Fernandez, and Moises Caicedo.
However, this extravagant spending means Chelsea must sell players in the summer 2024 window to avoid Premier League sanctions. Conor Gallagher, who has garnered interest from several clubs, is a prime candidate for sale.
Although selling him would be a reluctant move, it makes the most financial sense as it would generate pure profit, similar to the sale of Mason Mount to Manchester United.
The summer 2024 transfer window promises to be a pivotal period for Chelsea, focusing more on outgoing transfers to balance their finances and allow for new signings.
Arsenal – High PSR Risk
- Transfer Net Spend Since 2021/22: £398.3m
Under Mikel Arteta’s leadership, Arsenal has become a Premier League title contender again.
This resurgence has come with significant financial investment since Arteta took charge at the Emirates Stadium in 2019.
Their big-money signings of Declan Rice and Kai Havertz in the summer of 2023 led to a subdued winter transfer window as the club became cautious of breaching Profitability and Sustainability Regulations (PSR).
To comply with these financial rules, Arsenal is expected to sell some academy graduates like Eddie Nketiah and Emile Smith-Rowe, both of whom are attracting interest from other clubs.
This strategy will help balance the books and give Arsenal more flexibility in the transfer market.
Looking ahead to the summer of 2024, Arsenal aims to strengthen their squad further, with a new striker being a top priority.
Offloading Smith-Rowe and Nketiah would provide the financial leeway needed to make strategic acquisitions, potentially propelling Arsenal towards a Premier League title in the 2024/25 season.
Newcastle United – High PSR Risk
- Transfer Net Spend Since 2021/22: £352m
Since the Saudi-backed Public Investment Fund (PIF), PCP Partners, and the Reuben Brothers took over Newcastle United in October 2021, the club has spent heavily to turn things around.
The new owners inherited a club in disarray from Mike Ashley, with an ageing squad that had seen little investment and was teetering on the brink of relegation. Fortunately for Newcastle fans, the appointment of Eddie Howe as manager sparked an incredible transformation.
Howe not only improved the existing players but also brought in high-quality signings like Bruno Guimaraes, Kieran Trippier, and Alexander Isak. He successfully steered the club away from relegation and led them to a top-four finish in his first season.
One of the challenges Newcastle faced was the lack of saleable assets when PIF took over, which meant they had to be cautious to avoid breaching Profitability and Sustainability Regulations (PSR).
The sale of Allan Saint-Maximin in the summer of 2023 provided some relief, but it wasn’t a complete solution.
In October 2023, Guimaraes extended his contract with Newcastle until 2028, although it includes a £100 million release clause, which adds some uncertainty heading into the 2024 summer window.
While Newcastle doesn’t necessarily have to sell a big star to comply with PSR, the club acknowledges the need for some departures.
Players like Callum Wilson, Sean Longstaff, and Miguel Almiron are among those who might leave, allowing the club to retain key figures like Guimaraes, Isak, and Sven Botman.
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Nottingham Forest – High PSR Risk
- Transfer Net Spend Since 2021/22: £243.3m
Nottingham Forest has already been penalized under the Profitability and Sustainability Regulations (PSR), resulting in a four-point deduction.
If their current spending trends continue, the outlook for the club could worsen. Since returning to the Premier League in the 2022/23 season, Forest has been among the most active in the transfer market.
They brought in 22 players during the summer of 2022, followed by an additional seven in January 2023. The spending spree continued with 13 more signings in the summer of 2023 ahead of their second season in the top flight.
The sale of Brennan Johnson provided some relief from potential further PSR penalties, but the club is expected to see more departures in the summer of 2024.
Morgan Gibbs-White is attracting interest from various clubs, and Forest understands that some unexpected sales may be necessary. These moves will help the club rebuild and avoid additional points deductions as they look ahead to the 2024/25 season.
Manchester City – High PSR Risk
- Transfer Net Spend Since 2021/22: £171.2m
Manchester City are currently facing 115 alleged breaches of Financial Fair Play (FFP).
The Premier League has scheduled a trial for autumn 2024, but the exact date and trial details remain confidential. A verdict is anticipated in the summer of 2025.
This uncertainty about potential punishment has been a significant source of stress for the club. Given the point deductions handed to Everton and Nottingham Forest in the 2023/24 season, any penalty for Manchester City, if found guilty, is expected to be severe.
Despite these allegations, Pep Guardiola’s team has continued to spend heavily and dominate the Premier League. They are on track to win their fourth consecutive league title, which would set a new Premier League record.
There has been widespread criticism about the length of the investigation, not only from Manchester City’s rivals but also from the club itself. The club is eager to clear its name and move past the cloud of uncertainty.
If found not guilty, it would be a huge relief and cement their status as one of the greatest teams in Premier League history.
Aston Villa – Moderate PSR Risk
- Transfer Net Spend Since 2021/22: £127.4m
Aston Villa will compete in the Champions League for the 2024/25 season, thanks to an impressive fourth-place finish under Unai Emery in 2023/24.
The club has adapted well to European football’s demands, using their Europa Conference League experience to prepare for the Champions League. Villa’s significant spending to reach this level was bolstered by the sale of Jack Grealish to Manchester City, which allowed for a substantial rebuild.
However, with the financial boost from Grealish’s sale now exhausted under Profitability and Sustainability Regulations (PSR), Villa will need to sell players to meet financial constraints.
Jacob Ramsey, an academy product, has garnered interest from other clubs, making him a prime candidate for sale to help Villa stay within PSR limits and enhance their transfer budget.
This move would enable the club to strengthen its squad for the Champions League competition. While many Premier League clubs are treading carefully in the transfer market due to PSR concerns, Villa has valuable assets that can help them avoid penalties and remain competitive.
Leicester City – Moderate PSR Risk
- Transfer Net Spend Since 2021/22: +£29.9m
Leicester City were charged by the Premier League for allegedly breaching Profitability and Sustainability Regulations (PSR) in March 2024, raising fears of starting their return to the top flight with a points deduction.
The charges claim that Leicester failed to submit their audited financial accounts for the 2022/23 season. Leicester responded with a strong statement, expressing disappointment and promising to work constructively with the Premier League to resolve the issue favourably.
Following their relegation to the Championship in the 2022/23 season, Leicester sold key players like James Maddison and Harvey Barnes.
Barnes’ transfer to Newcastle United, in particular, helped alleviate some of the club’s PSR concerns by providing pure profit.
With their return to the Premier League, Leicester plans to invest heavily to ensure they avoid relegation in the 2024/25 season.
The club hopes that any points deduction will be less severe than the ten points docked from Everton in the 2023/24 season. Leicester is awaiting the Premier League’s decision and expects to know their fate before the start of the new season.
Everton – Moderate PSR Risk
- Transfer Net Spend Since 2021/22: +£73.9m
It’s no surprise that Everton could potentially breach Profitability and Sustainability Regulations (PSR) during the upcoming 2024/25 season.
The club ran afoul of these rules in the previous 2023/24 campaign, initially facing a hefty ten-point deduction, the largest in Premier League history. After a successful appeal, they managed to reduce the penalty to six points.
Meanwhile, Everton’s new stadium construction is well underway, slated for completion in time for the 2025/26 season opener, signalling significant financial investment across the club.
However, there’s uncertainty surrounding Everton’s proposed takeover by 777 Partners.
The consortium enlisted financial engagement experts in May 2024, raising doubts about their ability to finalize the takeover.
The sale of Anthony Gordon to Newcastle United in January 2023 provided Everton with much-needed profit and alleviated some PSR concerns. Yet, their spending has remained consistently high, with inflated transfer fees and hefty player wages.
An independent commission discovered that Everton had exceeded permitted losses by £19.5 million up to the end of the 2021/22 campaign. Whether Everton will learn from these financial missteps in the future remains uncertain.
With ongoing uncertainty surrounding the potential takeover, Everton’s future hangs in the balance.
