In bets, “The house always wins” is a phrase that has been in use since the year 1635 when it was known as “the rules of the house”. It is often used to express how so-called “game theory” can give an unbeatable advantage to a certain player. But is it possible to consistently beat the house?
This is a question I have thought about for the longest time. My friends and I have always wagered bets against one another, but we’ve always wondered if we could beat the house consistently. We knew that if we could outsmart the odds, then that would be something worth doing.
We’ve all been to casinos, and every time someone wins big, someone loses big. That’s just how it goes in the casino world; there are winners and losers. However, this does not apply to sports betting (most of the time). Every year online sportsbooks rake in billions of dollars off of hundreds of thousands of gamblers who play individual games all over the globe.
How can you win a bet in the long run?
1. Have an elaborate bankroll management strategy
The most important aspect of gambling is the bankroll. When you first start out betting it is often a good idea to be more stingy than loose, this will keep losses at a minimum and lower the amount of risk you are taking on.
I like to start off with $50 in my account, and if I lose all of that, I’ll stop for a few days to let my bankroll build up again. Also, never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any single bet (this can go up as your account grows).
2. Use line moves carefully
Line moves are what sportsbooks update every 15 minutes until kickoff. These are crucial in making money, some games will move drastically and others will move less. The important thing is that you use the line moves to your advantage.
For example, if I’m betting on a game, and I like one team over another by a point or two, I may wait until the line moves more in their favor before betting on them.
3. Study probabilities
Certain teams have certain probabilities of winning based on statistics, histories of the head-to-head play, and other factors. A large portion of sports betting success is derived from knowing that the team you are betting on is a better team than the favored team.
The key here is that you know what probabilities to look for and that you understand how to use those probabilities. Computers are helpful in the research department, but ultimately it comes down to a gambler understanding the basics of probability.
4. Study results over time
Sports gambling has always been about studying previous trends in games, teams, and players. There are certain levels at which you want to play your opponents and certain levels at which they like to play their opponents.
In soccer, for example, Belgium has never lost to Spain. It is those trends that you study that will give you an edge.
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5. Understand what the sportsbook does
Before you start betting, a lot of sportsbooks offer bonuses for your initial deposit, as well as for large deposits. This is what most gamblers do not realize – the sportsbooks are always trying to beat you!
They are also constantly changing their odds in order to profit off of gamblers who don’t know how they work. You need to understand how they work so that you can play against them and make money.
Most welcome bonuses have a wagering requirement attached to them. This means that you cannot withdraw your initial deposit until you have wagered it a certain number of times.
The sportsbook has the advantage here because they know when the point of no return is, whereas you most likely do not. So if there is a $50 bonus with a 5x rollover requirement (which is common), then the average person will wait until he has wagered $250, at which point he will withdraw his deposit and call it quits.
The other gamblers who are sharper than that though who know how to bet and win will keep playing while they watch their balance grow!
6. Look at predictions from tipsters
As I said above, some gamblers do not know how to bet or do not have a strategy for betting. But you can still make money if you know what to look for. Some sites offer tips on games for free, whilst others offer paid subscriptions.
The tips can really help improve your chances of winning, but at the end of the day, they are only typed out hints and tips that may lead nowhere or just be plain wrong. Still, it is worth checking them out just in case they do tell you something useful.
Most tipsters share daily football predictions on sport-specific forums. This can be extremely useful because it is easy to catch up on scores, games, and odds.
It also gives you the chance to see what other tipsters are saying about the game in question so you know what not to bet on if you know how to predict games. The problem with this is that it can be difficult getting their predictions right.
7. Know the teams
Bookmakers are constantly calculating odds based on several different factors such as: number of games played, the margin of wins and losses, the number of betting teams, number of bets placed by both teams in this game.
Injuries, transfers, and other such factors will also affect the game. The key here is to know about the team you are betting on and how it will affect the odds. You want to make sure that you are betting on a team that is likely going to win, but because of injuries or other factors, you may have to play your cards differently than normal.
Sometimes teams will also have streaks of wins and losses, which tends to raise or lower their odds accordingly. Many times this can be predicted by studying the team head-to-head record (this can only be done by looking at past archives).
